Statistics and Trends

THOMAS J. KUZELKA AND W. H. YOUNGMAN.

STATISTICS are yardsticks for measuring the present in terms of the past and for making plans for action.

Farmers have felt a need for statistics of production and prices since the middle of the 19th century, when agriculture began to emerge from the level of self-sustenance. Many believed that they were at a disadvantage in bargaining because they knew less about crop production than did the people to whom they sold.

Agricultural statistics made their greatest growth in wartime. Some data were available as early as 1839, but the gathering of statistics was first made part of the work of the Department of Agriculture in the war period of 1862 and was greatly expanded in each subsequent period of conflict.

The Federal Census of Agriculture for 1849 gathered statistics on field seeds. The data for that year and for each succeeding decennial census up to 1909 were limited mostly to group totals for clovers and grasses. The census for the latter date provided separate totals for timothy seed, in addition to the group totals. The Census of 1919 was expanded further to include figures for seed of red clover. Statistics on imports and exports likewise were submerged in group totals for most kinds before 1910.

Although other fragmentary statistical information was collected by some States and the Department of Agriculture at earlier dates, the official estimates of acreage, yield, production, farm price, and value of production did not begin until 1919. Such production totals as were available for the years before 1919 included some partly cleaned and thresher-run seeds and therefore are not comparable with the succeeding series, which is on a clean-seed basis.

Some figures on the production of seeds were collected before 1938 by the Hay, Feed and Seed Division of the former Bureau of Agricultural Economics. They were integrated into the official series after 1938, when all functions of collecting statistics on seeds were transferred to the Agricultural Estimates Division, which is now a part of the Agricultural Marketing Service of the Department.

The urgent need for statistical information during the Second World War brought a rapid expansion of the work. Estimates of production were available in 1919 for only four kinds of field seeds, including alfalfa, red and alsike clover combined, and timothy.

Sweetclover and lespedeza were added in 1924, as production of each kind became increasingly important. Other kinds were added later. The estimating program included 47 kinds of field seeds, and 46 kinds and more than 250 types and varieties of vegetable seeds by 1950. The number of seed crops and the States where seeds are grown changed periodically as production increased or declined and as the urgency of need for statistics developed or waned.

The number of crops of field seeds for which estimates were made was reduced from 47 to 28 in 1952, because by that year supplies of many kinds were far above domestic needs and price supports for hay and pasture seeds were discontinued.

The list of the 28 kinds that remained in the estimating program since 1952 includes alfalfa, red clover, alsike clover, sweetclover, white (Dutch) clover, Ladino clover, crimson clover, lespedeza, timothy, redtop, orchardgrass, Kentucky bluegrass, Merion Kentucky bluegrass, sudangrass, smooth bromegrass, crested wheatgrass, chewings fescue, red fescue, tall (Alta and Kentucky 31) fescue, bentgrass, Austrian winter peas, lupine, hairy vetch, common vetch, purple vetch, common rye-grass, perennial ryegrass, and mustard.

The list of vegetable seeds includes practically all the leading kinds and types used for the fresh market and processing.

FORECASTS and estimates of seed production are made by the Crop Reporting Board of the Agricultural Estimates Division. It also compiles and publishes data on prices, value of production, carryover, disposition, supply, and disappearance of seeds.

A typical forecast employs two kinds of questionnaires. One is mailed to a representative list of growers in the areas of production. The other is mailed to a list of country shippers.

Growers are asked to report acres cut and to be cut for seed and pounds of seed harvested "this year" and "last year." Other questions relate to carryover of old crop seeds, disposition of the seeds produced in the previous year, and quantities sold each month.

Country shippers are asked to give their opinion on the percentage of change in acreage harvested and to be harvested for seeds in their buying, area, approximate quantities of seeds harvested and to be harvested for the current year and the previous year, and pounds of seeds purchased from growers each month of the previous year's seed-buying season. Followup mailings are made to nonrespondents to increase the returns.

The data from the questionnaires that are returned constitute a sample, or cross section, of all growers. The acreage in the sample may represent 5 percent of the growers who produce a particular kind of seed in a State or as high as 30 percent in another State. The average size of the sample for all the States is nearer the lower percentage.

A sample of this size usually is large enough to provide reasonable accuracy of the estimates. The sample from the country shippers represents one-third to three-fourths of all shippers handling the seeds in the producing area.

The growers' and shippers' indications of percentage of change in acreage for the current year, as compared with the preceding year, are interpreted separately for each State by use of regression charts. This method allows adjustments for any bias that may be due to selectivity in mailing lists, underreporting of large crops, overreporting of small crops, and other factors. The degree of bias is established over a period of years by known benchmark observation points such as the 5-year Federal Census of Agriculture, annual State farm census, and annual crop-check information. Yield data are interpreted by means of chart relationships in a similar manner as is done for acreage.

Because forecasts of seed production are made close to the beginning dates of harvest, the forecast frequently differs from the final estimate. Such influences as inclement weather at harvesttime, depressed prices, and lack of demand are the chief reasons for such differences. Thus, in order to obtain a more accurate appraisal of change in acreage and yield from the previous year, it is necessary to resurvey the growers that reported in the forecast and to include other growers who harvested seed. This is done by means of an acreage card, which is sent to a much larger random list of growers throughout the State. This card asks about the acreage harvested and to be harvested for all crops, including seeds.

Two indications are obtained from this source. First is the ratio to land in farms the total reported acres of a particular seed crop expressed as a percentage of the acres of all land in farms in the entire sample. Second is the "identical" percentage of change in acreage, obtained by matching the current reports of individual growers with their previous year's reports.

As in the case of the forecast, these indications are interpreted on charts.

Additional information is also obtained on yields per acre through the use of an acreage and production inquiry, which is sent after harvest to a smaller list of respondents. The information as to yield from it and from the special forecast inquiries is supplemented by judgments as to indications of yield, obtained from the October, November, or December farm reports. The latter are mailed to a list of established crop reporters.

The composite data from all these sources as to acreage and yield form the basis for the preliminary estimate, which is published in December.

Some information also is obtained by statisticians in field offices through interviews with seedgrowers, buyers of seeds, and county agents. The statisticians often make field counts and observe the set of seed before harvest.

THE PRELIMINARY estimates published in December may be revised the following year if additional information indicates a need for revision. The new data may be a cleaner crop-check of all known cleaners in a State, State farm census enumerations of acreage and production, certified seed records, verified origin records, and additional indications on yield per acre. Data from the Federal Census of Agriculture become available every 5 years and set benchmarks that help to true up the level of the estimates.

STATISTICS for vegetable seeds are compiled from reports of growers and companies who produce seeds. Much supervision by trained workers and a large outlay of land and equipment are required for growing and storing vegetable seeds. Fewer than 100 companies comprise the seed-growing industry in the United States. Practically all report to the Crop Reporting Board. The sum of their data provides the basis for the totals, as little adjustment is usually necessary for nonrespondents. Statistics are compiled for 264 kinds, varieties, or types of seeds.