Sharing New Knowledge

Future Role of Electronic Technology in Agricultural Research and Extension

David W. Dik, assistant director, Cooperative Extension Service, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, and Charlotte B. Travieso, supervisory computer systems analyst, Extension Service.

Agriculture in the United States is at a major turning point as it enters the information communication age. In fact, some agricultural scientists indicate that the computer is possibly the most significant technological invention in U.S. agriculture today.

The Information Revolution

The information revolution is just in its infancy; many new electronic technologies are appearing daily that go well beyond the computer. These new electronic information and communication technologies are beginning to assume a more important role in our society. This is particularly true in nonformal educational programs such as the Cooperative Extension Service. They use researched knowledge in achieving three main functions: information delivery, educational program delivery, and problem solving.

Whether the focus is on production agriculture, human nutrition, community issues, including water quality, land use or leadership, or working with youth and adult volunteers, electronic technologies are in the forefront of the forthcoming changes in educational delivery and teaching and learning systems.

The information age is relatively new, but agriculture has moved through a succession of changes. In early 1800, agriculture relied on handpower, followed by horsepower in the later part of the century. In 1920 and beyond, mechanical power boosted productivity. By 1945 agricultural production and the allied industries were showing spectacular production gains through the use of science power. Now, a new influence has come to the point of changing research and extension programs radically. This new force is information power.

Electronic technologies are swiftly becoming pervasive. The United States is only 3 or 4 years away from having the major social and economic forces shift from mass society and the industrial age to the information age. It is through this major social and economic transformation that research and extension will fashion new methodologies to extend and translate new knowledge.

New information technologies have the potential to radically change the way individuals live, work, are educated, and use their leisure time. These technologies, along with convergent social changes, will induce significant transformations in the educational programs and activities of the entire research and extension community of the land-grant system, including the national, state, regional, and county levels.

A Changing Society

As the Extension Service continues to fulfill its mission of disseminating research for today and research for tomorrow, trends need to be recognized. The following trends and these are just a few indicate tremendous opportunities and change in conducting research. The growth in media usage and electronic innovation also spells out major differences in the ways of disseminating research results.

Worldwide trends follow:

Population Growth. World population will increase from 5 billion in 1980 to 6.3 billion in 2000.

Political and Economic Instability. Increasing populations and instability in economic and political life could reduce or cut off sources of raw materials. Vulnerability to loss of mineral and energy sources may lead to greater domestic emphasis on the production of these materials from lands in the United States.

Electronics. World population will be linked by TV networks and computers. This will lead to instant communications, greater cultural interdependence, and potential for unity and mutual understanding.

Science. Likely breakthroughs in cancer and health care, gene technology, solar and alternative energy generation, agriculture, and high technology applications will provide means to solve many foreseeable Problems.

Rise of Pacific Basin. The rise of China as a manufacturing and high technology production center will shift world economic balance to the Pacific Basin.

Third World Industrialization.

Rapid increase in Third World heavy industry and manufacturing and increased use of petroleum worldwide could lead to further energy crises.

Global Economy. All nations will be interdependent economically.

Short-term business cycles will be felt worldwide, and moves to adjust and control these cycles through international action will increase.

Soil and Agriculture. Shifting demands of agriculture, industry, recreation and residential uses will create changes in land and water uses.

Supply and demand pressures will increase on the natural resource base, prime farm land, on waterways, and forest lands by a wide range of users.

Deforestation. Continued destruction of forests in the tropics is likely as land is cleared for fuel and agriculture. Demand for wood from U.S. forest lands will increase, both to supply foreign requirements and to help balance foreign trade payments.

Pollution. Acid rain, oil spills, chemical pollution, ocean dumping of waste, and accumulation of hydrocarbons in the atmosphere may eventually lead to major extensive deterioration in forests, fisheries, water quality, and air quality. Effects on the atmosphere may cause a warming trend, increased melting of ice caps, rise in ocean levels, and climatic changes that could profoundly affect food production.

Extinction of Species. Expanding development and increasing world population will reduce areas of forest, range, and wetlands leading to further extinction of species and elimination of wildlife habitat.

U.S. trends follow:

Population Growth. U.S. population will increase from 220 million in 1980 to 260 million in 2000.

Aging. The average age of U.S. population will increase, implying greater emphasis on health care. Cultural changes will favor mature population over youth cultures. Shifts in types of recreation and levels of consumption will occur. Possible crisis in providing retirement, health care, and other benefits may lead to increases in retirement age and reduction in benefits. There will be a likely increase in immigration to provide work force.

Demographic Changes. Increase in diversity of ethnic, language, and cultural groups presages a trend to pluralism or all-minorities society from a majority-minorities society, with possible effect of greater social and political fragmentation. In California and the Southwest, Hispanic population will rise to majority status by the year 2000. Great shift of U.S. population from north central and eastern States to south, west and southwest will place pressures on resources of the land and local governments.

Rising Value of Resources. All natural resources, renewable and nonrenewable, market and non-market, will rise in value as demand intensifies.

Women in the Work Force. Percentage of women in the work force increased from 25 percent in 1970 to 43 percent in 1980. More than 53 percent of married women are now working full time.

Electronic Culture. There will be a cultural shift from physical space joined by the motor car to conceptual space connected by electronics. Instant communication through cable TV, televideo phones and conferencing could change paper-based newspapers, catalogs, books, offices, and shopping.

Future Shock. Today's society is future-oriented and rapidly changing. Most jobs today did not exist 50 years ago. Most jobs today won't exist 50 years from now. The rate of obsolescence in education, technology, and culture will accelerate.

Changing Values. More emphasis is being placed on personal fulfillment rather than single-minded material success. Balance between family, personal, spiritual, and occupational values and less emphasis on job as sole measure of success. "Voluntary simplicity" movement against consumerism.

Suspicion of Experts and Government. The public no longer trusts experts and demands the right to decide matters formerly left to experts, such as in defense, foreign policy, nuclear energy, and chemicals. Major shift from federal solutions to state and local initiatives. The public is demanding a role in land-use decisions that affect them.

Single Issue and Single Resource Politics. Fragmentation of political life as single issues and single-resource advocacy dominate public controversy.

Changing Consumer and End-User Needs

The consumers and end-users of agricultural research and extension information area continuously changing clientele. Farm financial stress is being felt by many small and midsized agricultural operations. While the end result and production have not changed that dramatically, the makeup of producers and their agricultural activities has changed.

As a result of various trends mentioned, needs have changed as well. The demand is high for instant information. The end-user can no longer afford to wait for at least 1 year to read about current agricultural research in a printed journal. The producer needs immediate access and answers to questions on crop reports, crop prices crop supply, pesticide application, conservation tillage, and Federal programs and regulations.