Our Forest Resources

Forests of the Future

Ross S. Whaley, president, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse.

As the United States becomes more urbanized and affluent, and its society more specialized, it has become easier to take for granted the adequacy of its food and fiber supply. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than in the lack of consideration and appreciation of the contributions of our forests. The connection is rarely made that writing paper, houses, and furniture are usually made from raw materials supplied by forests. Nor is the link made between water supply or enjoyment of wildlife, or the esthetic quality of the outdoor environment to the condition of the forests.

Perhaps one of the great luxuries of our affluence is not having to worry about the Nation's potential to grow food or fiber. This is in striking contrast to parts of the world where years of misuse of the forests, accompanied by less favorable rainfall than ours, has brought in wood fuel shortages, the destruction of watersheds, and even climate changes.

These problems are geographically distant from the United States, but it would be wrong to assume that there will always be enough forests of the right kind in North America, or that this Nation will not be affected by shortages of such resources elsewhere in the world.

Forests A Renewable Resource

One outstanding characteristic of the forest resource is its renewability. Unlike many of the possible substitutes for wood, a forest can be grown, harvested, and regrown. In some respects, consumers can have their cake and eat it again in a few decades. This contrasts sharply with the nonrenewability of mineral resources such as coal, or steel, or other commodities used for fuel or construction.

Renewability has two important consequences. First, through science and management, people can influence the long-term supply of forest products made available. Second, because supply can be manipulated, long-term demands on renewable forest resources are likely to increase substantially relative to the fixed supply of nonrenewable resources that is, along with the normal growth in demand from increases in population and overall economic growth, increased substitution of forest resources for nonrenewable resources must be watched.

Forests provide scenic beauty, basic raw materials for many products, a link to our water supply, and a home for wildlife.

The Long-Term Character of Forestry

To examine the needs for, and contribution of, research on forest resources, it is necessary to look beyond the requirements of next season or even next year. The time between planting a forest stand and harvesting its products ranges from almost a decade to a century. The impacts of many forest management practices may not be fully realized for 10 years or so. Similarly, investing in research does not provide quick payoffs.

A study of the contributions of research to forestry by the Forest Service a few years ago pointed out two important conclusions: (1) The returns from investment in research are unexpectedly high, and (2) the time from the inception of a researchable idea to the implementation of research findings averages well over a decade.

The need to look beyond the turn of the century to evaluate the needs for forest resources and the implications for research is of considerably more than academic interest. Taking the long view is necessary in formulating informed investment strategies.

Some Future Trends

Investigators have delineated several trends that will influence the demand on forest resources over the next couple of decades and from which conclusions about the adequacy of these resources can be drawn.

It is absolutely necessary to think in global terms. While there will be continuing political debate over the extent to which free trade or protectionism vis-a-vis global interdependence should be encouraged or discouraged, evidence overwhelmingly points to the conclusion that increasing the sharing of resources and technology would lead to a world both economically better off and more secure and stable. In this belief, the discussion of the following trends moves freely between domestic and global considerations.

Domestic and global population growth will increase demands on forest resources.

Recognizing that the rate of population increase has been declining both in the United States and the world, medium-level estimates indicate that the United States will have 260 million people by the turn of the century and the world, 6.1 billion. These figures represent increases of 30 million and 1.4 billion, respectively.

From the global view, population change relative to available resources is probably the single most important trend influencing the demand on our forest resources. The world population in 1980 was approximately 4.4 billion people. United Nations projections indicate a range of levels at which world population will stabilize:

Low estimate............ 8.8 billion by 2040 Medium estimate ... 10.5 billion by 2110 High estimate.......... 14.2 billion by 2130 Recent estimates of world population have been smaller than earlier ones. Although differing, they all to the conclusion that world population will approximately double over the next 50 years. Even if per-capita income remains constant, there will be need for more resources to feed, clothe, house, and nurture a population of this size.

Although experts may debate the actual magnitude of increase in demand for forest resources, no one denies that the increase will be substantial. Also, it seems inescapable that the competition for good land from agriculture, forestry, urbanization, and improving infrastructure must increase.

Per-capita real income will increase with a concomitant expansion in the demand for forest resources.

A look at past growth in per-capita gross national product as a rough measure of increasing welfare of a nation may serve as an indicator of economic growth trends. In the United States, for example, gross national product will reach about $2,690 billion (1972 dollars) by the year 2000, double what it was in 1977. The rate of growth worldwide is more rapid than that of the United States. Not only more people but more people with purchasing power greater than that of today can be anticipated.

As one example of the impact of this growth on our forest resources, the Forest Service estimates, in An Assessment of the Forest and Rangeland Situation in the United States, the following increases in consumption of forest-based goods and services between 1978 and 2000: Down- hill skiing 75 percent; timber 65 percent; freshwater fishing 40 percent; dispersed camping 35 percent; and water 25 percent.

For resources such as timber and water, the rates of growth for the rest of the world be considerably greater than those for the United States.