Some segments of American agriculture are still relatively untouched by mechanization, notably cotton and tobacco in the Southeastern States. But mechanization of cotton production in the South is not far off. The use of tractor power is likely to be followed by machine cultivation and harvesting of cotton. In the next few years perhaps some progress will be made in adapting machinery to tobacco production.

Machines will continue to replace horses and mules until most of this substitution has been accomplished. The introduction of the small one-plow tractor will speed up the shift. Machines will be further adapted for use with mechanical power, and each phase of farming and farm living will become more mechanized.

Land and Crops

The total acreage of cropland (including failure and fallow land) increased considerably before and during the First World War. The total cropland acreage was a little lower in the 1920's than in 1919, but it rose slowly from 1927 to 1931, with the breaking of sod lands in the Great Plains and the West. To some extent the abandonment of farms in the East offset the increase in the West. From 1932 to 1939 the acreage generally went down. It remained low until 1943, when it approached the peak of 1928-32, where it remained the rest of the war.

Changes in the use of cropland, in the amount of lime and fertilizer applied, and other practices have affected the volume of crop production much more than shifts in the total acreage. The acreage of intertilled crops expanded somewhat in the war years, with a counterbalancing decline in close-growing crops; but the acreage in hay and rotation pasture was fairly well maintained, despite the drive for cash crops. Summer fallow in the Great Plains was reduced considerably from the peak reached in 1939, and land that was previously idle was put back into crops or pasture all over the United States.

Farmers seeded more green-manure and winter cover crops during the war. The acreage of winter cover crops in the South was about four times larger in 1944 than in prewar years. The use of strip cropping and of contour farming also grew steadily, but the rate of construction of new terraces slowed down a little.

Farmers used gradually increasing quantities of lime and commercial fertilizers in the late 1930's as a result of economic recovery and the stimulation of conservation programs, and they used more and more of them during the war. In 1945, the use of plant nutrients in commercial fertilizer was nearly twice the prewar average. The quantity of lime used in 1945 was four and one-half times the prewar level; many farmers used lime and commercial fertilizer for the first time. If the prices of farm products drop, farmers would buy less fertilizer for cash crops, but it does not seem at all likely that sales would drop back to prewar levels. And the Nation as a whole is vitally interested in the use of lime and fertilizer to help establish stable, soil-maintaining systems of farming.

The crop changes that have contributed the most to higher production have been the improved strains and varieties that have increased the yields per acre of our most important crops. Hybrid seed corn is an outstanding example; in 1933 only about 143 thousand acres were planted with hybrid seed corn; in 1945, about 60 million.

Farmers harvested nearly 40 percent more corn in 1944 than they did between 1935 and 1939. A significant point : The acreage harvested was only 5 percent greater, but yields per acre were 32 percent higher. A part of the increase was due to better growing weather, and a smaller part to the use of more fertilizer and better farming. But most important was the greater use of hybrid seed. If we assume an average increase in yield of 20 percent over the old open-pollinated corn, we can figure that hybrid seed added 400 million bushels to the 1944 corn crop. Nearly 16 million more acres would have been required to grow that much corn if ordinary seed had been used. Three-billion-bushel corn crops are now the rule rather than the exception in this country. The 1946 crop was 3.3 billion bushels.

Outstanding changes have also taken place in the oil crops. Soybeans were grown on a paltry half a million acres in 1914; more than 14.2 million acres of soybeans were grown in 1945. The acreage of peanuts also was greatly expanded in 1940-1944, and the crop contributed significantly to the food supply. The growing of flaxseed was greatly expanded in the early war years, but dropped back a little in 1944 and 1945.

A change that developed gradually over the interwar and the war years was the shift in hay acreage from grasses to the higher-yielding legumes, which also have a higher protein content and so help to balance the livestock ration. From 1940 to 1944 nearly 39 percent more digestible protein was available for each roughage-consuming unit of livestock than in the 5 years from 1920 to 1924. The change in the supply of hay has profoundly influenced the protein balance of the available feed supply and, thereby, the production of livestock.

Significant changes also have occurred in growing dry beans and peas, potatoes, and other vegetable crops. Recent increases in the production of fruits are accounted for largely by the expanded acreage and higher yields of citrus fruits, which constituted almost half of the total tonnage of the fruit crop in 1945.

The most important changes in growing cotton have come in higher yields to the acre. The average yields since 1937 are all much greater than in earlier years; the average between 1941 and 1945 was 260 pounds an acre, compared to 174 pounds in 1928 to 1932-a jump of nearly 50 percent. That remarkable rise we can attribute largely to the use of more fertilizer, a shift to higher yielding areas with reduction in acreage, better land selection within each area and on individual farms, improved varieties, and the use of legumes and cover crops.

We can expect even higher yields from improved varieties of crops that have greater resistance to drought and disease. Lincoln soybeans and Clinton oats in the Corn Belt, hybrid corn suited to the South, Ladino clover for the Northeast and Lake States, and many another improvement adapted to other regions seem destined to do their part in enhancing the yield of each acre; so, also, drainage and irrigation in some places. With these changes, plus the use of more lime and fertilizer, legume rotations, cover crops, and other conservation practices, it will be quite possible to continue for some time the gradual upward trend of recent years.

Livestock

Three major forces have changed livestock production since 1919: The shift from animal power to mechanical power, the changes in the total feed supply, and higher production per animal.

The constantly shrinking number of horses and mules has released land that could grow direct food crops or feed for producing livestock and livestock products for human use. Land thus released between 1920 and 1945 was enough to feed 16 million head of cattle. The saving in grain alone from the smaller number of work animals amounted to about 13 million tons in 1944. If that much grain had all been used for hogs, it could have fed 26 million hogs to market weight.

Year-to-year changes in the total supply of feed have caused fluctuations in livestock production. The severe drought in 1934 and 1936 reduced the production of feed about 30 percent and 25 percent, respectively, below the level of 1928 to 1932. But feed production during 1942 to 1944 averaged about 20 percent above that of 1928 to 1932, and made it possible to raise about 25 percent more livestock per year. than in 1935-39.

Farmers can increase production per unit of livestock by using better breeding animals and balanced rations, reducing losses from death, feeding more heavily, and observing other improved practices. The combination of these has lifted the recent production per unit of breeding livestock to a point 25 percent higher than the level of 1919. We have not measured adequately the efficiency of feeding, but significant gains apparently have been made in all classes of livestock. An example : Corn Belt records indicate that the amount of feed used per 100 pounds of pork was cut by as much as 10 to 15 percent from the 1920's to the 1930's.

Further substitution of mechanical power for horses and mules will release more hay, grain, and pasture for use by other livestock. Therefore, the production of livestock and livestock products for human use will tend to go up. In the South the new developments in pasturage and forage and the changes in systems of farming that might accompany the introduction of tractors will reinforce the tendency. Farmers will grow more hay, grain, and pasture than in former years because they can handle those crops with mechanical equipment.

Total Output of Farm Products

The production-increasing effects of the scientific advances that were made in the early part of the interwar period were obscured 6y the drought and depression of the 1930's. But the wartime need for farm products provided an opportunity for the fuller use of the improvements that were developed in the two previous decades.

Farm output has risen more sharply than gross farm production because of the shift from work animals to tractor power. In 1945 it was 28 percent above the average of the five prewar years. Special studies indicate that only about a fourth of this increase was due to better weather. Probably less than 15 percent resulted from expansion of cropland acreage. The rest--about 60 percent-is largely accounted for by fuller use of the improvements in crops, livestock, and machinery that I have mentioned.